In light of the industry’s transition towards an increased use of renewable energy and less use of fossil fuels, DNV GL’s forecast focuses on the challenge of decarbonization facing the maritime industry.
#1 Regulatory and stakeholder outlook
To ensure compliance and to make the right business decisions, it is important to understand the existing and future regulatory framework, and the expectations placed on shipping from external
stakeholders. DNV GL expects safety regulations to be improved, in relation to ensuring that new environmental technologies and fuels can be applied safely, and to address challenges linked to digitalization, such as cyber risk, autonomy, and control systems.
#2 Fuel and technology outlook
The selection of fuel will be based on a compromise between the benefits and drawbacks of the various fuel options being compared. Safety will be a primary concern.
In addition, the cost associated with machinery, as well as the expected fuel prices and availability of bunkering infrastructure, will be key barriers. It can be translated into monetary terms once a design has been established and the necessary safety measures identified.
DNV GL states that many alternative fuels, and their diverse characteristics, make it difficult to identify ‘winners and losers’ clearly.
Therefore, they introduced the concept for the ‘ranking of alternative marine fuels’, as an important new feature in this latest Energy Transition Outlook report.
#3 Fleet outlook
Measuring in deadweight tonnes (DWT), they predict:
- The fleet size will increase by more than a third (35%) by 2050
- The crude oil fleet will decline by 30% by midcentury, peaking in 2030 at about 20% larger than today, then shrinking
- Today’s product tanker fleet will decrease by 8% by 2050.
#4 The carbon-robust ship
In the study, they present a development of the carbon-robust ship concept that they introduced in 2017.
A new model now evaluates fuel and technology options by comparing the break-even cost of a design to that of the competing fleet of ships. The cost structures of competing fleets are compiled on the basis of scenarios, including, for example, regulations, fuel prices, and technology developments.
One striking finding is that investing in energy efficiency and reduced carbon footprint beyond current standards seems to increase competitiveness over the lifetime of the vessel.
Credit: DNV GL / Outline of the carbon-robust ship
Learn more about the Maritime Forecast 2050 here.